At their October, 2024 meeting, the members and guests of the Grampaw Pettibone Squadron were privileged to be visited again by Dr. Dirk H. deDoes, Major, USAF(Ret). Dirk received his Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from USC in 1969. He has over 55 years in developing and evaluating military and civilian aerospace systems. In concert with co-workers, he authored and presented over a dozen technical papers on the Global Positioning System (GPS), and aircraft and missile guidance and control. Dirk shared his research and documentation on the history involving the U.S. Nuclear Triad, consisting of our nuclear delivery bomber fleet, ICBM missile technology and ballistic missile launch submarine force (SSBN).
Upgrades to a supersonic bomber began with the Rockwell, B-1 in 1974, but was cancelled in 1977 due to excessive costs. The program restarted in 1981 due to delays in the delivery of the subsonic stealth Northrop B-2 bomber which began production in 1987 and went operational in 1997. The B-1, though intended as a nuclear bomb delivery system, was changed to a conventional platform beginning in 1998.
Dirk compared the current B-2 to the next generation in production, the Northrop Grumman B-21. While the B-2 is a low observable stealth aircraft, the physical size of the B-21 is almost 25% smaller with an even smaller low-observability feature. It is a lighter aircraft, capable of carrying a smaller payload, but less expensive to produce and maintain. The B-2 is the most expensive aircraft ever built with over $150,000/hour flight cost. The B-2 initial production size was 132 aircraft with a unit cost of $737 million. A final production count was reduced to only 21 bombers and a total program cost including R&D was of $2.1B. The B-21, unit cost > $700M each based on ordering at least 100 B-21s, with R&D cost > $32B through FY 2027.
The retirement of the B-1 and B-2 aircraft will see a future bomber fleet composed of upgraded B-52s capable of launching long range stand-off cruise missiles and newer hypersonic weapons. It will be joined by the latest aircraft, the stealth featured B-21.
The B-21 Raider will be a component of a larger family of systems for conventional Long-Range Strike, including Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, electronic attack, communication and other capabilities. It will be nuclear capable and designed to accommodate manned or unmanned operations. Additionally, it will be able to employ a broad mix of stand-off and direct-attack munitions.
The B-21 is being designed with open systems architecture to reduce integration risk and enable competition for future modernization efforts to allow for the aircraft to evolve as the threat environment changes.
The benefit of the B-52 and B-21 inventory is the ability to launch from air bases and be recalled if necessary, adding flexibility to the nuclear strike options.
Dirk next introduced, an upgrade for a 50 year-old ICBM system utilizing the land-based LGM-30 Minuteman-III. The existing operation is scheduled to be replaced by the LGM-35A Sentinel Program.
The Sentinel Program is composed of three major segments: Missile, Ground, and Command and Control(C&C). The current system is located at three existing bases.
A total replacement of the ICBM system consisting of 400 missiles, 450 silos, and > 600 facilities over 31,900 square-miles raises serious questions. Early cost estimates for Sentinel were based on “a huge uncertainty.” Current MM-III deterrent must remain on-line due to the implementation time period required to come up to operational readiness.
The capability of the existing infrastructure and older construction to support the Sentinel program is unknown at this time. Even as we consider existing equipment, silo features, building sustainability, software upgrades, staff readiness and other project components to meet operational we have an immediate challenge.
The USAF notified Congress in January 2024 that: the Sentinel program has a 37% cost growth and a 2+ year schedule slip. This is considered a program breach based on existing laws that require the SecDef must either cancel the program or certify it to continue as necessary for national security. The cost will move from the initial baseline in 2020 of $96B to a revised estimate of $130B.
The project is regarded as the biggest program the Air Force has ever undertaken. The Air Force said in June 2024, that the Sentinel Systems Director Col. Charles Clegg was fired as head of its program. The Air Force said that while the program delay and cost overrun is a problem, the removal of the Director was not because of the cost overruns, but because, “he did not follow organizational procedures.”
Dirk introduced the final member of the Triad, the Columbia-class program with a goal to design and build a class of 12 new ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) to replace the Navy’s current force of 14 aging Ohio-class SSBNs. Starting in 2031, the Navy plans to replace each retiring Ohio-class boat with a new Columbia-class SSBN submarine.
The Navy has identified the Columbia-class program as its top priority program, and procured the first Columbia-class boat in 2021. The Columbia-class will be the largest submarine ever built by the United States.
The Columbia-class submarines are designed to have a service life of 42 years, while the Ohio-class submarines require a mid-life nuclear refueling.
As the Navy’s top priority, the Columbia-class program will remain funded even at the expense of funding other Navy programs. Total program cost is currently $115B. Each sub is priced at $8.5B. The total lifecycle cost of class is estimated at $347B. It seems that large $ and schedule overruns are expected.
The Grampaw Pettibone Squadron, would like to thank Dr. deDoes for presenting the material on the Nuclear Triad program. We appreciate the time he took to compile the material and present the information to an attentive audience. We look forward to future topics.
